Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or the source of the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
According to Opta, twice all season have Villa posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with rivals and then rely on their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger might become the player he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
